BBC reports that Science Fiction is overlapping with reality again, this time in the form of self-driving cars. Nevada has just issued a license to the first self-driven vehicle, a Google car.
The practical, safety oriented part of me thinks that computers will make much better drivers than most humans. Computers will never be distracted by a phone call, changing radio stations, tired, drunk, impatient or any of the other failings we flesh-based machines possess. I have no doubt that there will be software glitches somewhere along the way, but the risks posed by those glitches will be minor compared to the current level of hazard that exists on most roadways. California is also moving towards allowing self-driven cars.
“The vast majority of vehicle accidents are due to human error,” said California state Senator Alex Padilla, when he introduced the legislation.
“Through the use of computers, sensors and other systems, an autonomous vehicle is capable of analysing the driving environment more quickly and operating the vehicle more safely.”
In a near future scenario, what does this mean?
- The transport trucking industry is likely going to change dramatically. Sufficiently sophisticated software will be able to replace most, and eventually all, freight drivers. Exceptions will likely be in remote and/or extreme locations (such as ice roads in the North).
- Vehicle fatalities will likely go down dramatically. Human error is the single largest cause of almost all fatal accidents. Accidents will still happen, but not as often. On the other hand, when things do happen they will likely be more dramatic and get more attention in the media. Currently, accidents happen all the time and rarely make the news. A fatal accident that includes a digital driver will be a cause for a media frenzy, which will likely create a perception of hazard that is opposite of the truth (like the fallacies about seat belts that persist in the face of evidence).
- Anyone who has read Robopocalypse will look on their cars with suspicion. Anyone who has read SF in general will have their doubts. All software is vulnerable to hacking, and that becomes a more significant issue when the software is moving massive pieces of metal and steel around in public places.
- Fuel efficiency will likely go up dramatically as self-driving cars become commonplace. With reduced risk, much of the current (perceived need) for heavy components and frames will become unnecessary. Light, fast and efficient vehicles will become the norm. Additionally, one assumes that robots will operate at maximum efficiency, unlike we humans who irrationally squander our fuel in lunatic accelerations and decelerations (i.e. in a single block between two stop signs).
- There will likely be a transitional period where we all insist on having the ability to take control of the vehicle at any moment. Before long we might not even have seats facing forward.
